WASHINGTON, June 30—The Selective Service System will hold its second draft lottery tomorrow amid indications that the random selection process is finally functioning smothly.

The enormous confusion that followed last December’s lottery, the first in a generation, seems for the most part to have subsided: People who believe that military conscription is necessary now seem generally to agree that the random system is better than the old method of drafting the oldest eligible men first.

Still, it was clear from interviews over the last week with officials, parents, students and other young people around the country that the lottery has done little to abate widespread opposition to the draft.

Two Capsules Selected

Tomorrow’s lottery affects only men born in 1951, men whose 19th birthdays are in 1970. No one will be inducted under the new lottery until January, but Selective Service officials expect to begin calling men with low sequence numbers for pre‐induction physical examinations almost immed‐, lately.

To establish the selection sequence, two sets of capsules—one containing the dates of the year, the other containing numbers 1 through 365 — will be picked at random from separate plastic drums.A man’s position in the sequence will depend on the number that is drawn at the time his birthdate is picked.

Thus, if March 20 is drawn at the same time as No. 150, all men born on March 20, 1951, will have lottery No. 150. They will be called after all men in their draft boards with No. 149 and before all men with No. 151.

For the rest of this year, draft calls will continue to be filled by men whose place in the draft sequence was set by the drawing last December.

Chaos Over Forecasts

The chaos and disillusionment in the months following that drawing stemmed primarily from the conflicting forecasts of White House and Pentagon manpower experts on the one hand and Selective Service officials on the other.

Selective service officials around the country promptly challenged these projections and insisted that to fill their quotas they would have to call men with the highest sequence numbers.

The indications now are that the Pentagon experts were right, and one state director, who asked not to be quoted by name for fear of harassment, acknowledged today, “We’re eating crow.”

Most draft boards reported that they were now drafting men with numbers close to 190, the ceiling set by the national headquarters for the July call, although boards in Kentucky have not exceeded 179 and a few boards in other states were even below 150.

Cutoff at 215 to 240

None of the dozens of local board members and state directors questioned in the last few days was willing to make outright predictions on how high they would lave to reach into the sequence by the end of the year.

But the consensus was that the cutoff would fall between 215 and 240. The national headquarters has instructed the local boards not to call anyone who has a number above 215 for his pre‐induction physical examination.

The state and local officials who have recanted their earlier dire predictions cite three circumstances that have changed since they made their forecasts. They are:

1. Estimates of the national draft call were significantly reduced. At the time of the first lottery, the Pentagon said the total call for the year would be 250,000 men. Defense Secretary Melvin R. Laird’s most recent projection is that between 150,000 and 185,000 men will have to be conscripted, reflecting the Administration’s reduction in the size of the over‐all armed forces.

2. Limits were set by the national headquarters on the monthly sequence numbers. The local boards could not exceed these limits even if it meant they could not meet their quotas. As a result, in the first few months of the year, national draft calls were missed by a total of 14,000 men. Dr. Curtis W. Tarr, national director of Selective Service, said that half of the “shortfall” had been made up by this month and that the rest would be made up by the end of August.

3. Orders for physical examinations were still being made through December, 1969, on the basis of age, not lottery numbers, and in many instances the only men who had been examined and were eligible in the early months of the year were men with high numbers.

The fact that the lottery for the next year is being held six months before it goes into effect will enable the local boards to rearrange their files in plenty of time to have a pool of qualified men with low numbers by January, draft officials said.

Total draft calls through July have amounted to 116,500 men. Even if Secretary Laird’s outermost estimate of 185,000 men is actually reached, about twothirds of the annual call has now been filled.

Students Losing Deferments

The draft for the remainder of the year will also be affected by the fact that the tens of thousands of young men who graduated from college this month will lose their student deferments. and enter the draft pool. Many of these men have lottery numbers below those that have already been reached. They will be called before any men with higher numbers.

State directors said it would probably be August or September before all these men were reclassified.

If a man does not have deferment this year and his lottery number is not reached by the end of the year, he is almost certainly safe from the draft forever. The only instance in which he could be drafted would be if the’ entire pool of eligible men were inducted in one year, a most unlikely circumstances unless there was national mobilization.

If a man has a deferment this year, he will enter the pool of men in the year he loses his deferment. He will be placed in the same spot in the sequence as the number he drew last December. Thus, his lottery number never changes, and he is not affected by tomorrow’s lottery or any subsequent lottery.

Delay, by Appeal

A man cannot avoid the draft simply by continuing an appeal past the end of the year. If he has no deferment and his number is called he may temporarily remain a civilian while appealing his classification or induction order. But if he loses that appeal, he will be among the first persons drafted next year.

Whether or not a man has a deferment, he is free from the draft the day he reaches his 26th birthday, unless he began an appeal process before he was 26.

Nearly all state and local officials interviewed said they had learned to administer the lottery, despite the early problems, and they agreed that the system was fairer than the old system.

“The new system gives assurance to the draftee when he will be called and also gives him an opportunity to plan for the day,” said Capt. T.D. Proffitt, the chief of the Selective Service office in Los Angeles.

Parents also seemed for the most part to approve of the new system. “I don’t like it. What mother wants her son to go off to war?” said Mrs. Neill Cissell of Louisville, the mother of a draft‐age son. But she quickly added

“The lottery, though, seems to be the best. My son is treated like everybody else.”

Nearly all the young people interviewed were opposed to the draft in any form. “It makes you afraid to look in the mailbox,” said Fred Clay, a recent college graduate from Alabama, whose lottery number is 184.

But most of the youths agreed that the lottery was an improvement over the old system, and only one or two out of several dozen believed it was worse.

In most parts of the country, draft officials and law enforcment officers agreed that an increasing number of men were, refusing to report to induction or physical examinations. Except in California, however, the number of violators appeared to be small.

40% in California

In California, nearly 40 per cent of those called for induction or examinations have not shown up, and David Nissen, a Government prosecutor from Los Angeles, said that defiance of the draft had reached dangerous proportions.

Prosecutors and draft officials alike agreed that the bulk of those who had not reported were not conscious violators but had been ill, overslept, never received their notice to report or had some other excuse. Most of these men are eventually reached, the officials said.

Draft officials all agreed that very few men failed to register when they reached 18 and that most of these were ignorant of the law.

In California, Mr. Nissen said that in the last six months of 1969 there were 329 indictments for draft law violations. Government records show that there were 1,785 prosecutions in the entire country in that period.

5% in New York

Mr. Nissen estimated that 25 per cent of the cases that reached his office were prosecuted and that about 70 per cent of these resulted in convictions.

Col. Paul Akst, the draft director in New York City, said the number of men there who failed to report for induction was “less than 5 per cent” of those called.

Draft officials agreed that it was too early to see any increase in conscientious objector applications resulting from the Supreme Court decision June 15 that liberalized the qualifications for this status. Most draft officials declared, however, that they were expecting an increase in such applications.